Concord, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

678
FXUS61 KGYX 060759
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
359 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front will remain over the area today through Saturday
providing a focus for multiple rounds of showers and storms. A
few storms may become severe this afternoon with a flood threat
for areas that see repeat rounds of heavy rain into Saturday.
High briefly builds in Sunday with a return to active weather
Monday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
After a dry reprieve these past few days, a period of active
weather is expected today through Saturday. A stalled boundary
is draped SW to NE across the forecast area early this morning
with some elevated convection ongoing across southern NH. Deeper
moisture has been building into the region with 00Z KGYX
sounding sampling 1.26 inches of precipitable water, although
some dry layers are still noted aloft. Latest CAM guidance and
BUFKIT soundings show better saturation through the column
today with PWATs climbing to around 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Filtered
insolation will allow MU CAPE to build up to around 1500 J/kg
across central and southern NH and interior western Maine. After
some isolated showers/TSRA this morning, better forcing will
arrive this afternoon with CAMs showing scattered thunderstorms
blossoming across NH early this afternoon and tracking into
western Maine. Better forcing today with a slight uptick in
shear will bring the threat for a few severe storms with both a
damaging wind and to a lesser extent severe hail threat. SPC
has placed far southern NH in a Slight Risk for severe storms
with a Marginal Risk extending into the White Mountains and
portions of western Maine.

In addition to the severe threat, CAMs show the potential for
repeat rounds of convection today into this evening. Recent
mostly dry days has allowed soil moisture to dry with current
3-hour FFG across central and southern NH and western Maine
around 2.5 to 3.25 inches. The 00Z HREF mean 3-hour QPF has
stripe of 1.5 inches across southern NH into the White Mountains
and western Maine Mountains. Looking at the HREF max 3-hour
QPF... as a gauge for a high end outcome... there are some
pockets of 3-hour QPF approaching 3-4 inches. While PWATs will
be high on the order of +1.5 to +2.0 sigma, warm cloud depths
are not overly impressive at around 10KFT. Given the recent dry
days and spatial variability in where repeat rounds of
convection will occur have held off on a Flood Watch with this
package. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk ERO for today and the
main take away will be to watch for where the repeat rounds
occur for isolated flash flood potential. Otherwise, it will be
warm and humid with temperatures around 80 degrees and dewpoints
in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Convection will transition to more in the way of stratiform rain
tonight by midnight. CAMs generally agree that PoPs will
decrease after midnight into Saturday morning before the next
wave tracks along the stalled boundary. Tonight will be mild and
humid still, with lows around 60 degrees. Ample low level
moisture will likely lead to patchy fog, especially within river
valleys and along the coastal plain.

The next wave to track along the boundary will cross southern
New England late Saturday morning through the evening. This will
bring another round of widespread rain showers with some
embedded convection as MU CAPE will be around 500 to 1000 J/kg.
Since CAPE will be less on Saturday with effective shear around
25 kts there will be a limited threat for strong convection. Any
areas the experience heavy rainfall today will be susceptible
to flood concerns Saturday with potential for moderate to heavy
rain rates. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s with
dewpoints remaining muggy in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1115 PM Update... Little change in the latest NBM suite of
guidance. Multiple chances for rainfall exist for much of next
week with some dry periods mixed in between.

Previously...
Pattern Overview: A trough exits the region Saturday night.
Afterward our weather pattern becomes more dominated by the
Bermuda High as it strengthens in the central Atlantic during
the first part of next week. This will advect moisture into the
region creating more unsettled weather heading into mid-week.

Details:

Sunday and Monday: The first part of next week looks mostly dry
as the general pattern supports upper level ridging with a
surface high pressure building in to our north. However, with
the Bermuda High also strengthening over the Atlantic our region
gets locked into southwesterly flow which means upper level
moisture will remain present and with high temperatures climbing
into the 70s both days, sufficient instability to support
isolated showers could develop. Sunday certainly looks like the
drier day with a fresh airmass overhead, with moisture beginning
to increase and be more supportive of isolated showers on
Monday.

Tuesday-Thursday: Southwesterly flow continues into mid-week
increasing moisture over the region once again. This will be our
next best chance for widespread precipitation after Saturday as
low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes Region may drag a
front through on Tuesday or Wednesday, with additional forcing
from an upper trough. As usual, timing varies between model
suites at this point, so its worth a mention as a period to
watch, but the finer details will have to wait.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
across southern NH into southern Maine through this morning that
will bring brief restrictions if the encounter any TAF site.
MOre widespread thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into
the evening with mainly VFR prevailing outside of any shower or
storm. Low cigs and fog will likely bring IFR/LIFR across much
of the area tonight. Some improvement is possible Saturday
morning while another round of showers and storms is likely late
Saturday morning into the evening.

Long Term...Conditions will gradually improve Saturday night
with VFR likely Sunday. Chances for showers increase Monday into
Tuesday that could bring periods of restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
thresholds. A stalled front with increasing moisture will
support areas of fog over the waters today through Saturday.
There will also be waves of low pressure bringing multiple
rounds of showers and some thunderstorms over the waters through
the period.

Long Term...Low pressure tracking over the region will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the waters Saturday night. This
will also build seas to 3-5ft on Sunday. Afterward, a
strengthening Bermuda High will bring tranquil conditions to the
waters for the first part of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Baron/Tubbs